Can Apple thrive if Jobs doesn't return? Many believe the company's co-founder is the key to its success

January 17, 2009 | Brad Stone The New York Times Media Group

Brad Stone The New York Times Media Group
International Herald Tribune
01-17-2009
Can Apple thrive if Jobs doesn't return? Many believe the company's co-founder is the key to its success
Byline: Brad Stone The New York Times Media Group
Edition: 3
Section: FINANCE/BUSINESS

NEW YORK --

It has been in the air for some time, but Apple can dodge the question no longer: How important is Steve Jobs to its future?

By all accounts, Jobs's perfectionism, autocratic managerial style and disregard for conventional wisdom are at the heart of Apple's remarkable streak of success.
Since he returned to Apple in 1996, the company has set a new standard for design in personal computers, built a chain of sleek and always-crowded stores, jump-started the sale of digital music and turned the mobile phone into a fun, flexible computer.

But now the company faces the real possibility that its inspirational leader may fade from the scene. Jobs, Apple's co- founder and chief executive, said Wednesday that he was taking a leave of absence from Apple until June because his health issues - he is a survivor of pancreatic cancer - were "more complicated" than he first thought.

Analysts are quick to point out the strength of the company's management bench. Timothy Cook, its longtime chief operating officer, will take over at least temporarily and is responsible for Apple's manufacturing and sales operations, which are the envy of the consumer electronics industry. Jonathan Ive, Apple's design chief, runs the team that has created much of the functional, visceral and emotional allure of Apple products .

But some Apple watchers and former employees are skeptical about Apple's fate if it must soldier on without Jobs.

"If you look at the history, Apple can coast for several years and still do very well," said Paul Mercer, who worked for Apple in the 1980s and subsequently developed software that was used to design the user interface for the first iPod. "But it's very risky, and without Steve, the long term is untenable."

The stories about Jobs are well known, like his insistence that even the insides of the Macintosh computer, which hardly anyone ever sees, should look good. His obsession with detail permeates everything Apple does, and that principle will certainly not disappear from the company if he is gone.

But there are other aspects of his role that do not get as much attention and may be more difficult to replace. At many technology companies, divisions often work at cross-purposes, competing with one another to develop related products. This can lead to devices and software that are sometimes incompatible, frustrating customers.

Jobs, former Apple employees say, has the authority and long- term vision to yoke Apple managers and employees together in a single cause.

"Steve is terrific at attracting and retaining people, creating an agenda and getting people to stick to it," said Stephen Perlman, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who was a principal scientist at Apple in the '80s.

Jobs has also been Apple's chief deal maker. After introducing the iTunes store in 2003, he persuaded entertainment companies to sell digital versions of their products when they were largely hiding for fear of piracy.

In their moments of great anxiety, Apple fans look back to the late '80s and early '90s for a glimpse of Apple without Jobs. After he was ousted in a boardroom coup in 1985, Apple actually thrived for several years, presenting the first Mac with a color screen, the PowerBook laptop and QuickTime, which broke ground in bringing video to personal computers.

But then, to the horror of its diehard fans, Apple withered. Its stock fell 68 percent from its 1991 peak to the level at the time of Jobs's triumphant return in 1996. In the meantime, three chief executives came and went, and Apple's core product, the Macintosh, did not evolve as fast as computers based on Microsoft Windows.

Part of the problem, said people who were at Apple during the lean years, could be traced to Jobs himself: He had not allowed anyone with talents similar to his own to rise at the company. Some think that may also be true today.

"Steve's personality is such that he had not brought up other people who could do what he does. He's the kind of person who pushes away people who are like himself," said Ted Kaehler, who worked on the original team that developed the first graphical user interface and later worked at Apple in the '80s.

But some Apple watchers are reluctant to use the past as a guide.

Andrew Hertzfeld, who helped develop the original Macintosh and now works at Google, said that Apple had had 12 more years under Jobs's leadership to soak up his unique values.

He also said that products already in the pipeline - which analysts say may include new iMacs and smaller iPhones - already bore Jobs's imprint and could sustain Apple for years to come. "It will take half a decade for the absence of Steve to really show up in the products," Hertzfeld said.